Lesson Learned

Going in to a poker game a few nights ago, I was told by one of the usual suspects that a new guy would be joining us. Of course, my first question was "Does he know how to play?" I was then warned: "He knows the basics of the game, thinks he's much better than he actually is, and he's a calling station".

In case you're not familiar with the term Calling Station, it refers to the type of poker player who calls everything. They won't raise you unless they they have the nuts, and they don't like to be bluffed. It stems from a general lack of knowledge of the game, and a fear of looking stupid by making a move that's either too aggressive or too passive. Once you have identified this type of player, simply wait until you've hit a big hand, then string them along.

So back to my recent poker session, I had shown up late, and had missed two previous 8-person tournaments, but got there just in time for the 3rd tournament. I take my seat, and recognize everybody but the new guy sitting directly to my right. Several hands are played, an elimination occurs, then a few hands later, I make my big mistake.

In the Big Blind, I look at my hole cards to see K-9 of spades, a decent hand from this position. A player from a late position (the same player from one of my recent blog entries where I made a questionable call for all my chips with Ace high on the river) limps in, the dealer folds, then the new guy calls from the big blind. Although I consider raising it up right here, I opt to see a flop, and check.

The flops brings As-9h-3s, an awesome flop for me, now holding the nut-flush draw and middle pair with the top kicker. I love to play these kinds of hands, there's so much potential of improving the hand, plus I'm still holding middle pair, and considering the pot was not raised pre-flop, there's a pretty good chance I'm well ahead at this point.

The new guy checks, I check as well, hoping to entice a bluff from the other player in the hand, and that's exactly what happens. He figures the pot is there to be stolen, the blinds likely don't have an Ace, so he tries to represent the Ace in hopes that even if either of the blinds have a middle or bottom pair, they will respect the raise. A great idea, from that position, but it didn't work.

The new guy calls after a moment of posturing, which has me worried now that maybe he does have an Ace. If he does have an Ace, I have to assume he has a weak kicker based on his lack of pre-flop raise. Even Calling Stations know enough to raise with a big hand pre-flop, and for them a hand of A-10 or better is usually accompanied by a raise. If this is the case, I'm still actually a very small favorite to win the hand (50.1% to 49.9%). Of course, he could also have a flush draw, in which case I'm in great shape, and I can't rule out the possibility that he has a set of 3's, but I would've expected him to either raise pre-flop or re-raise on the flop.

I decide to see where everyone stands, and raise it up quite a bit. The player in late position folds, obviously caught trying to steal a previously uncontested pot, but the new guy calls from the small blind. At this point, I'm pretty sure he has either a weak Ace or a flush draw. Anything else should have either made him fold or re-raise in that situation.

The turn is a blank, he checks and I make another average sized bet, yet again he calls. The river card is another blank, but I still feel pretty good about my pair of nines, despite the fact that i missed the flush draw. He checks again, I know he hasn't improved upon his hand, if he had anything at all. Having invested roughly half of my chips already in this pot, I decide to push all-in.

My thinking is that if he does have me beat, obviously checking at this point isn't going to help me, and if I have him beat, he probably won't call anyways. I don't think he would have played a set so passively, so I feel pretty confident that a bet of this size would push him out of the pot. Really, it's a brilliant strategy... or so I thought.

He looks me over, seemingly perplexed at why I pushed all-in. Not worried that calling this bet would leave him with barely enough to cover the blinds, he says "Well, I've got no idea how you play, but it seems like a bluff to me." He calls with A-7, revealing almost exactly what I had suspected. I applaud him for a great read, and walk away from the table to think about where I went wrong.

I forgot that I was up against a Calling Station, he'd hit top pair on the flop, and probably would have put all his chips in the middle at that point if he had to. All the subtleties of how I played the hand, all the possible hands that have him beat, all the poker logic in the world wasn't going to make him fold that. Then again, maybe he did just have a great read on me, but how would I blog about that?