Luck is a significant factor in poker, I don't know too many people that would argue against that. Depending on who you talk to, it can range anywhere from 80% skill vs 20% luck to 20% skill vs 80 luck. Regardless, these are the 2 key elements of poker. So why is it that certain people seem to take more bad beats than others?
I have been playing Texas Hold'em for the better part of this millenium, or the past 7 years, whichever you prefer. From the very start, I have been known for taking more than my fair share of bad beats. Early on, it was so bad that I was very close to giving up completely, but 2 things kept me going.
1) I knew that I still had much to learn about the game, and somehow I believed that my lack of knowledge was a contributing factor to my success at the poker table, even when it came to the numerous bad beats.
2) I had just purchased tables and poker chips for the poker league I help organize with monthly tournaments, I felt the obligation to keep playing as the unofficial supplier. Plus, my wife would have killed me if I quite playing after spending that much money on supplies.
I read several books, many blogs and websites about strategy and statistics, played more often live and online to get as much knowldge and experience as I could, and not surprisingly, the bad beats went away. Maybe it was the Slumpbuster, or maybe it was that I learned how to not put myself in situations where I could be given another bad beat.
Most players who tell a bad beat story rarely tell the truth. At least, they don't tell the whole truth. The exception to this rule is when the beat was so horrific, there's no need to embellish it to make it seem worse. What I'm eluding to is that in my experience, the majority of all bad beats can be explained.
For example, just a few days ago, I was playing a small tournament, and after a fairly short period of time, I was considerably short-stacked. When I pushed all-in, the guy who called me said "I probably shouldn't do this, but what they hell". I immediately stood up, knowing my night was over after hearing that, and the cards did not disappoint. I pushed all-in with K-Q, and was called by 10-9, and he hit a 9 on the river to beat me.
I was more than a 65% favorite to win or tie the hand preflop, but all thatr means is I'll lose 35% of the time. There were several factors that went into how this hand player out.
1) I allowed myself to get short-stacked by some weak play early on. It wasn't bad luck, I just made a poorly timed move or two. So when I pushed all-in, the chip leader who was in the Big Blind didn't actually risk that much money compared to the blinds.
2) The person who called me had been dealing bad beats to many of the usual suspects that night. He was clearly on a roll, feeling good about his chances in every hand he played. Some nights, it just seems that certain players are unstoppable, and if they recognize this trend early on, there's very little you can do about it.
3) Like I said before, I have a reputation for taking bad beats. Everyone knows it, and there have been several instances where I know people play hands against me they wouldn't play against others for just such a purpose. A great example of this happened years ago, when a good friend of mine called my all-in of about 8x the big blind, just myself and him in the pot, so no other reason for him to try and steal the pot. He had 7-2 off suit vs my pocket aces, and made a straight and a flush by the time the river card fell.
This last reason is probably the biggest reason I still take bad beats. When I'm in a hand where others are playing crappy hands, they're increasing the chances of me taking another bad beat, giving themselves something to laugh about. Meanwhile, in reality, I probably make a lot more money off these people in the long run, because the odds are in my favour. Yes, I take several bad beats, and yes, they love to remind me of it, but nobody remembers the other pots I take down when their crappy cards don't hit anything.
After being eliminated from the tournament mentioned above, in 6th place out of 7 people, one player said "Did you 2 tag-team the poker god's wife?" You see, as much as I had taken a few bumps that night, the guy who was eliminated 1st had a much worse night. His luck disapearered about 4 years ago, who knows if it will ever come back.
I guess my point, if I actually have one, is that some people do seem to have more good luck than others, some people seem to have more bad luck than others, but in the long run it is skill that will decide whether you're succesful or not. As the saying goes, you have to be good to be lucky, and lucky to be good.
2 comments:
Yeah, if people know you take a lot of bad beats, more people will play bad cards against you, which gives a higher probablity of a bad beat.
Do you keep track of money and a hand by hand guide of each hand? I know some pros recommend doing that so you can actually tell if you take more bad beats than normal.
As the "Even Unluckier" person Paul referred to in his article, I would say keeping a hand-by-hand account would be entirely too depressing, and proof that I should retire from playing cards. And I'm too stupid to retire from playing cards!
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