Folding - Why the simplest action is often the hardest to do.

Have you ever been in a situation where your opponent has made a bet you know you shouldn’t call? Of course you have, every poker player has. You’re positive that he has you beat on the flop, and even if you’re lucky and he’s on a draw, you’re probably little better than a coin flip to win the hand. These aren’t favourable odds, and not worth the risk, so why is it that I see so many people call in this situation?

Yes, sometimes you catch your opponent on a complete bluff, and you look like a genius when it happens. Maybe you have a really good read on this player, or you know that he’s still steaming from a previous hand. But is it really worth it to call on little more than a hunch? Here’s an example of what I’m talking about.

Pre-flop: Under The Gun (UTG, means first to act) raises three times the big blind, two players fold, you look at your hole cards to find As-10h, and decide to call. Everyone else folds, until the Big Blind (BB), who also calls. Poker is a game of information, and so far you have very little information about what either player may be holding.

The BB could easily be holding any two cards at this point. Two players are in the hand for a small raise, and he has already committed 1/3 of the chips needed to call. He knows that he will be able to see the flop for this price, because he’s the last person in order to be able to call UTG’s raise.

UTG can also have a wide variety of hands. A relatively small preflop raise from an early position often suggests strength. They could easily be holding AA, KK or AK, just waiting for someone to re-raise them, in the hopes of getting all-in. Of course, as this becomes more common, it’s easy to take advantage of the situation, and raise with hands like 7-8 suited UTG.

The flop brings, Ad-7c-6c. You’ve just hit top pair, with a 10 kicker. Not a bad hand, but certainly not time to start raking in the chips. Being last to act is generally considered to be a good position, because you have the benefit of seeing what the other players do before you do anything, but it can also put a lot of pressure on you to make the right decision.

BB checks, and UTG bets, this time significantly larger than the first bet. He counts out his entire stack of chips, then pushes exactly half of them into the pot, which is 15 times the size of the first bet, sending the message that he wants to go all-in. It looks like a bluff, and everyone at the table knows it, especially the player making the bet. Everyone has about the same amount of chips, so now you have some pretty important questions to ask yourself to determine if you should fold, call or raise.

Did UTG have you dominated preflop (AA, AK, AQ, AJ), in which case you’d be praying to hit one of three 10s left in the deck. Maybe he only has KK or QQ and is trying to buy the pot, making you fold a superior hand. In which case you’re in great position, if you can make the call. But there’s still another factor left.

The BB is patiently waiting behind you, and you have no idea what he’s going to do, and no idea what type of hand he has. He checked after the flop, but that means nothing. He could have rags, but he could have a variety of hands worth calling the massive bet. Maybe he has 77 or 66 for a set, but no matter what, you likely don’t want to be playing for all your money against 3 players, especially when you have no idea how strong they are.

My advice, FOLD. It’s not easy for everyone to do in this situation, but you can’t lose what you don’t put in the pot. Maybe you did throw away the best hand, but they’re are too many hands that have you beat that UTG would likely have. Plus, there’s still a chance that BB has a strong drawing hand, putting you in even worse shape.

If this seems like a tight play, well that’s because it probably is. I’m generally considered to be a loose player, I like to play a lot of hands, and force myself to make the right reads. I’m not always successful, but the one rule I play by is to be the aggressor, not the calling-station. Force players to fold hands like the one described above, or to make a great play against me.

Incidently, the UTG player was me. I had pocket Aces, but was afraid of the flush, so I played the hand as if I was bluffing. The player with A-10 actually did fold, but the BB pushed me all-in with 77, for a lower set than mine. It was a good night of poker.