The Luck Factor

To some, I'm a whiner, to others, I'm preaching to the converted.

Luck is a significant factor in poker, I don't know too many people that would argue against that. Depending on who you talk to, it can range anywhere from 80% skill vs 20% luck to 20% skill vs 80 luck. Regardless, these are the 2 key elements of poker. So why is it that certain people seem to take more bad beats than others?

I have been playing Texas Hold'em for the better part of this millenium, or the past 7 years, whichever you prefer. From the very start, I have been known for taking more than my fair share of bad beats. Early on, it was so bad that I was very close to giving up completely, but 2 things kept me going.

1) I knew that I still had much to learn about the game, and somehow I believed that my lack of knowledge was a contributing factor to my success at the poker table, even when it came to the numerous bad beats.

2) I had just purchased tables and poker chips for the poker league I help organize with monthly tournaments, I felt the obligation to keep playing as the unofficial supplier. Plus, my wife would have killed me if I quite playing after spending that much money on supplies.

I read several books, many blogs and websites about strategy and statistics, played more often live and online to get as much knowldge and experience as I could, and not surprisingly, the bad beats went away. Maybe it was the Slumpbuster, or maybe it was that I learned how to not put myself in situations where I could be given another bad beat.

Most players who tell a bad beat story rarely tell the truth. At least, they don't tell the whole truth. The exception to this rule is when the beat was so horrific, there's no need to embellish it to make it seem worse. What I'm eluding to is that in my experience, the majority of all bad beats can be explained.

For example, just a few days ago, I was playing a small tournament, and after a fairly short period of time, I was considerably short-stacked. When I pushed all-in, the guy who called me said "I probably shouldn't do this, but what they hell". I immediately stood up, knowing my night was over after hearing that, and the cards did not disappoint. I pushed all-in with K-Q, and was called by 10-9, and he hit a 9 on the river to beat me.

I was more than a 65% favorite to win or tie the hand preflop, but all thatr means is I'll lose 35% of the time. There were several factors that went into how this hand player out.

1) I allowed myself to get short-stacked by some weak play early on. It wasn't bad luck, I just made a poorly timed move or two. So when I pushed all-in, the chip leader who was in the Big Blind didn't actually risk that much money compared to the blinds.

2) The person who called me had been dealing bad beats to many of the usual suspects that night. He was clearly on a roll, feeling good about his chances in every hand he played. Some nights, it just seems that certain players are unstoppable, and if they recognize this trend early on, there's very little you can do about it.

3) Like I said before, I have a reputation for taking bad beats. Everyone knows it, and there have been several instances where I know people play hands against me they wouldn't play against others for just such a purpose. A great example of this happened years ago, when a good friend of mine called my all-in of about 8x the big blind, just myself and him in the pot, so no other reason for him to try and steal the pot. He had 7-2 off suit vs my pocket aces, and made a straight and a flush by the time the river card fell.

This last reason is probably the biggest reason I still take bad beats. When I'm in a hand where others are playing crappy hands, they're increasing the chances of me taking another bad beat, giving themselves something to laugh about. Meanwhile, in reality, I probably make a lot more money off these people in the long run, because the odds are in my favour. Yes, I take several bad beats, and yes, they love to remind me of it, but nobody remembers the other pots I take down when their crappy cards don't hit anything.

After being eliminated from the tournament mentioned above, in 6th place out of 7 people, one player said "Did you 2 tag-team the poker god's wife?" You see, as much as I had taken a few bumps that night, the guy who was eliminated 1st had a much worse night. His luck disapearered about 4 years ago, who knows if it will ever come back.

I guess my point, if I actually have one, is that some people do seem to have more good luck than others, some people seem to have more bad luck than others, but in the long run it is skill that will decide whether you're succesful or not. As the saying goes, you have to be good to be lucky, and lucky to be good.

Lesson Learned

Going in to a poker game a few nights ago, I was told by one of the usual suspects that a new guy would be joining us. Of course, my first question was "Does he know how to play?" I was then warned: "He knows the basics of the game, thinks he's much better than he actually is, and he's a calling station".

In case you're not familiar with the term Calling Station, it refers to the type of poker player who calls everything. They won't raise you unless they they have the nuts, and they don't like to be bluffed. It stems from a general lack of knowledge of the game, and a fear of looking stupid by making a move that's either too aggressive or too passive. Once you have identified this type of player, simply wait until you've hit a big hand, then string them along.

So back to my recent poker session, I had shown up late, and had missed two previous 8-person tournaments, but got there just in time for the 3rd tournament. I take my seat, and recognize everybody but the new guy sitting directly to my right. Several hands are played, an elimination occurs, then a few hands later, I make my big mistake.

In the Big Blind, I look at my hole cards to see K-9 of spades, a decent hand from this position. A player from a late position (the same player from one of my recent blog entries where I made a questionable call for all my chips with Ace high on the river) limps in, the dealer folds, then the new guy calls from the big blind. Although I consider raising it up right here, I opt to see a flop, and check.

The flops brings As-9h-3s, an awesome flop for me, now holding the nut-flush draw and middle pair with the top kicker. I love to play these kinds of hands, there's so much potential of improving the hand, plus I'm still holding middle pair, and considering the pot was not raised pre-flop, there's a pretty good chance I'm well ahead at this point.

The new guy checks, I check as well, hoping to entice a bluff from the other player in the hand, and that's exactly what happens. He figures the pot is there to be stolen, the blinds likely don't have an Ace, so he tries to represent the Ace in hopes that even if either of the blinds have a middle or bottom pair, they will respect the raise. A great idea, from that position, but it didn't work.

The new guy calls after a moment of posturing, which has me worried now that maybe he does have an Ace. If he does have an Ace, I have to assume he has a weak kicker based on his lack of pre-flop raise. Even Calling Stations know enough to raise with a big hand pre-flop, and for them a hand of A-10 or better is usually accompanied by a raise. If this is the case, I'm still actually a very small favorite to win the hand (50.1% to 49.9%). Of course, he could also have a flush draw, in which case I'm in great shape, and I can't rule out the possibility that he has a set of 3's, but I would've expected him to either raise pre-flop or re-raise on the flop.

I decide to see where everyone stands, and raise it up quite a bit. The player in late position folds, obviously caught trying to steal a previously uncontested pot, but the new guy calls from the small blind. At this point, I'm pretty sure he has either a weak Ace or a flush draw. Anything else should have either made him fold or re-raise in that situation.

The turn is a blank, he checks and I make another average sized bet, yet again he calls. The river card is another blank, but I still feel pretty good about my pair of nines, despite the fact that i missed the flush draw. He checks again, I know he hasn't improved upon his hand, if he had anything at all. Having invested roughly half of my chips already in this pot, I decide to push all-in.

My thinking is that if he does have me beat, obviously checking at this point isn't going to help me, and if I have him beat, he probably won't call anyways. I don't think he would have played a set so passively, so I feel pretty confident that a bet of this size would push him out of the pot. Really, it's a brilliant strategy... or so I thought.

He looks me over, seemingly perplexed at why I pushed all-in. Not worried that calling this bet would leave him with barely enough to cover the blinds, he says "Well, I've got no idea how you play, but it seems like a bluff to me." He calls with A-7, revealing almost exactly what I had suspected. I applaud him for a great read, and walk away from the table to think about where I went wrong.

I forgot that I was up against a Calling Station, he'd hit top pair on the flop, and probably would have put all his chips in the middle at that point if he had to. All the subtleties of how I played the hand, all the possible hands that have him beat, all the poker logic in the world wasn't going to make him fold that. Then again, maybe he did just have a great read on me, but how would I blog about that?